Is war with Iran on the horizon?

If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a “defensive” U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITEE TESTIMONY -- ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, February 1, 2007

It seems as if the United States is always on the cusp of plunging into a full scale war with Iran. Last year, President Bush made the allegation that Iran was responsible for providing sophisticated "explosively formed projectiles" to the Iraqi insurgency. This year the State Department added the Al-Qods to the list of terrorist organizations. Finally, there has been much saber rattling over Iran's nuclear weapon program, and while the latest NIE on Iran defused much of the tension, the White House remains adamant that Iran is determined to acquire a nuclear weapon.

Last weekend there was an "incident" in the the strait of Hormuz in which Iranian speedboats "swarmed" several Navy ships. During the communication there was a threat, "I am coming to you...you will explode in a few minutes." Originally, the Pentagon claimed that this threat came from one of the speedboats, but now things are not so clear. Supposedly, it may have came from shore, or from another merchant freighter in the strait. However, this doesn't stop President Bush from playing up this incident for all it's worth:

"Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere, so the United States is strengthening our long-standing security commitments with our friends in the Gulf and rallying friends around the world to confront this danger before it is too late."

You're not imagining things if you think this rhetoric sounds awfully familiar.

We agree that the Iraqi dictator must not be permitted to threaten America and the world with horrible poisons and diseases and gases and atomic weapons.

This was from a speech in Cincinnati made on October 9th, 2002 as part of the Administration's attempt to justify the use of force in Iraq.

Americans need to understand that those who formulate America's foreign policy, the Neocons, are adamant that the United States overthrow Iran's regime, and occupy the region. We must interpret all events in this light. It's very possible that there will be an attempt to provoke Iran or possibly stage a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident to start a war with Iran. We should be skeptical of any report released by the Pentagon or the White House that alleges Iran is "threatening" the United States. America will not benefit from a war with Iran, but the Administration desperately wants one, and right now there is no telling how far they will go to get one.

Ron Paul: scourge of the establishment

In celebration of Guy Fawkes Day, Ron Paul's supporters donated 4.2 million dollars to his campaign, a one day record that outperforms all the other Republican candidates. This shows that while Ron Paul may not be polling very high among Republican primary voters, his supporters are the most energized and enthusiastic in this election cycle.

Of course many people do not understand Ron Paul, seeing his candidacy and his positions as some kind of anomaly. How do you explain an anti-war, anti-Bush, pro-life Republican? But Ron Paul has hit a powerful chord in the American electorate challenging the simplistic notion that Republicans and conservatives support the war in Iraq and Democrats and liberals oppose it. This is the way the issue is always framed in debate shows, magazines, and other popular venues of opinion, but things are not really so simple.

The war in Iraq is the most pressing issue of this election cycle, and wars are never gray. Supporters of the war believe that we are in a struggle against evil, that the war is good and just, and that we must not leave Iraq until we can safely declare we've defeated the enemy. Opponents of the war vary in their opposition, but largely they don't see it as a fight against evil, or as a response to 911, or as an attempt to keep Americans secure. A "war for oil," or the "military industrial complex," is how some opponents characterize the war; while others just see it as unnecessary quagmire that was conducted poorly and is largely irrelevant to our national security or the fight against terrorism. Regardless, in between these positions there can be little common ground. This is why Ron Paul is a breath of fresh air to some and a scourge to others.

Here we have a Republican with a solid conservative voting record speaking out against the war. In fact, Ron Paul is only one of a handful of Republicans to vote against the resolution to grant President Bush authority to wage war in Iraq. Even though Ron Paul is a Republican with unimpeachable conservative credentials, he is seen as a threat to the Republican establishment. Why?

Ron Paul shatters the illusion that opposition to the war in Iraq is just a Leftist or liberal position. His candidacy shows that Republicans can also be against the war and that the anti-war position isn't a monopoly of the Democrats. This is a frontal challenge to the Republican leadership because they've banked their superiority and strength on the war, on their greater ability to protect this country from the "enemy." The one and almost universal defense of George Bush is that he has shown tremendous leadership in the War on Terror, and while it might be legitimate to question his handling of other issues, his conduct in this war is above reproach.

Ron Paul's straightforward message is a dagger aimed right at the heart of Bush's supposed mantle of invincibility. The war in Iraq was not in our national interest, not a proper response to 911 or terrorism, and besides the United States military has no role in nation building, declares Ron Paul. He has unnerved the Republican establishment -- and good for him.

Within the last few weeks a popular blog for Republicans, Redstate, has banned any new posts that "pimp" for Ron Paul, and just last night Hannity's forums also banned any new threads regarding Ron Paul. Ironically, while Ron Paul does fare well in on-line polls and even Fox News polls -- much to Sean Hannity's chagrin -- he is still polling at only about 2% nationally. His inability to rank with the top tier is both mysterious and troubling.

I do not expect Ron Paul to win the Republican nomination, but for his candidacy to be a success he doesn't need to. Perhaps it would be enough if his candidacy were to shatter the simplistic partisan equation that associates criticism of the war with liberalism and support for the war with conservatism. Many conservatives are against the war, but their voices are too often ignored by the Republican establishment, which has no time for dissent.

Ron Paul is a scourge because he reminds the Republicans that opposition to the war is the true conservative position, that Bush's leadership is wholly superficial and phony, and that critics of the war are no less patriotic than those who support the war and wrap themselves in the flag.

I hope Ron Paul's scourge will last a long time.

First introduction

The war in Iraq continues to drag on without any foreseeable resolution, but just the empty promise that things will eventually get better. This is unacceptable. Why should Americans continue to fight in this war when our commanders have no clear criterion for victory, no realistic strategy for improving Iraq, and no idea how much longer this war will go on?

There were those of us who said that this war would be a disaster before the first shot was even fired. The opposition wasn't just on the Left, but on the Right as well. Sadly, the crusaders for this war -- chiefly the Neocons -- were intent on maligning anyone who didn't get on the pro-war bandwagon. David Frum's infamous piece in National Review in March of 2003, Unpatriotic Conservatives, is a good reminder that the Neocons are fanatics who will not permit dissent.

However, the Neocons are not the only ones responsible for entangling the United States in Iraq, but the noisy and reckless legions of Bush supporters, more aptly called Bush Cultists, who rallied for this war and were nothing more than around-the-clock propagandists.

Hopefully, we can clear up the damage the war in Iraq has caused, and create an understanding that will prevent the Neocons from ever again attempting such a dastardly and despicable act against this country.

To that purpose, this blog is dedicated.